Price Analysis April 13: Famed investor Mike Novogratz believes that additional crypto adoption and more drastic central bank actions will benefit Bitcoin. The Galaxy Digital CEO said that hedge funds and high-net worth individuals have been buying Bitcoin (BTC). However, Novogratz expects the U.S. equity markets to go down, hence, he “got short Friday for the first time in a while — both stocks and credit.”
Several analysts have suggested that the current crisis is likely to be far worse than the previous financial crisis, which led to the birth of Bitcoin. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said that the current coronavirus “pandemic will be an inflection point for Bitcoin and the Metaverse.” For this reason Winklevoss has advised his followers to “hodl” their Bitcoin holdings.
However, longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has a different opinion as he expects gold to outperform Bitcoin over the long term. Over the next several years, Schiff believes that Bitcoin will crash “back to earth” while “gold moons.”
Currently many analysts believe that over the next few weeks, equity markets and Bitcoin will decouple, leading each asset to chart its own course. If this were the case, then investors might gradually warm up to Bitcoin as the central banks and governments around the globe resort to further easing measures. The upcoming Bitcoin halving could also be another factor that turns out to be bullish for the largest cryptocurrency.
Over the past week, several major cryptocurrencies turned down from their respective 50-day simple moving average after failing to cross above it. Many investors now wonder if the bulls will regroup at lower levels and carry prices higher?
Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
After showing promise, Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally is fizzling out. There are two negatives, one is the breakdown from a rising wedge pattern and the second is a break below the 20-day exponential moving average ($6,840). Both these suggest that the bears are gaining strength.
There is a minor support at $6,553.21, below which the decline can extend to the critical support at $5,660.65. If this level also cracks, the BTC/USD pair can drop to the support line of the symmetrical triangle at $5,000.
This negative view will be invalidated if the pair rebounds off the current levels and the bulls propel the price above $7,454.17. Such a move will indicate strong buying by the bulls at lower levels. For now, the stops on the long positions can be retained at $5,600.
After trading between the moving averages for the past few days, the bears are currently attempting to sink Ether (ETH) below the 20-day EMA ($153.14). If successful, it will indicate that the recent breakout of $155.612 was a bull trap.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index has turned down from the 60 levels and slipped below 50 levels. This suggests that the bulls are losing steam.
Below the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USD pair can decline to $137.086 but if this support also fails to hold up, the next level to watch out for on the downside is $117.09. The traders can protect their long positions with a stop loss at $135.
However, if the pair rebounds off the current levels and breaks above the 50-day SMA ($168) and $176.103 resistance zone, it would indicate strength. The first target on the upside is $250 and above it $288.599.
XRP has slipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.184) after staying above it for the past few days. This is a negative sign as it shows that the bears are gaining the upper hand. On a break below $0.175, a drop to $0.15708 is possible. If this level breaks down, it will be a huge negative.
Conversely, if the XRP/USD pair rebounds off the current levels or the support at $0.15708, the bulls will make another attempt to scale above the $0.2057-$0.21608 resistance zone.
If successful, a new uptrend is likely that can reach $0.25 and above it $0.28. Therefore, the bulls can keep the stop loss on the long positions at $0.155.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dropped below the 20-day EMA on April 10 and the attempts by the bulls to push the price back above it failed on April 11 and 12. As a result, the bears have resumed their selling.
Both the moving averages are sloping down and the RSI has also dipped into the negative zone, which suggests that bears have the upper hand.
The next support on the downside is $200 and if this level also cracks, the decline can extend to $166. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be kept at $197.
Our bearish view will be invalidated if the BCH/USD pair rebounds off the $200 support and rises above $250. Such a move will increase the possibility of a new uptrend.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been trading close to the $185.87 support for the past two days. Both the moving averages have converged and the RSI is at the midpoint. This points to a directionless tight range trading for a few days.
If the BSV/USD pair dips below $176.90, a drop to $146.20 is possible. On the other hand, if the bulls can push the price above $183.04, a move to $227 is likely.
A break below $146.20 will be a huge negative as it can drag the price to $120 and below it to $100 levels. The stop loss on the long positions can be retained at $165.
After holding the 20-day EMA ($42.11) for the past three days, Litecoin (LTC) has dipped below it today. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI has slipped into the negative territory, which suggests that bears have the upper hand.
The next support on the downside is $35.8582. If this support also cracks, the LTC/USD pair can plummet to $29.3296 and below it to $23.9777. Therefore, the stop loss on the long positions can be kept at $35.
Our negative view will be invalidated if the pair rebounds off $35.8582 and breaks above the recent swing high of $47.6551.
EOS had dipped below the breakout level of $2.4001, which is a bearish sign. If the price sustains below this level, it will suggest that the recent breakout was a bull trap. The next support on the downside is $2.0632.
The 50-day SMA continues to slope down and the 20-day EMA has also started to turn down. The RSI turned around from the 60 levels and has slipped into the negative territory. This suggests that the bears have the upper hand.
Our negative view will be invalidated if the EOS/USD pair rebounds off the current levels and rallies above $2.8319. Such a move will indicate strength and can result in an up move to $3.86. The stop loss on the long positions can be retained at $2.
The bulls have not been able to propel Binance Coin (BNB) above the 50-day SMA but the positive thing is that they have aggressively defended the support at $13.65. This is a positive sign as it shows demand at lower levels.
Both the moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has been oscillating between the 50 and 60 levels, which is a positive sign.
If the bulls can drive the BNB/USD pair above the 50-day SMA ($14.76) and $15.49, a quick rally to $17.50 is likely. Above this level, the rally can extend to $21.50.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink and sustain the pair below $13.65. Below this level, a drop to $11.2552 is possible. For now, the stop loss on the long positions can be kept at $11. The stops can be trailed higher to $13 after the price sustains above $15.50 for four hours.
Tezos (XTZ) has been stuck between both the moving averages for the past few days. This shows a state of balance between the bulls and the bears as both are unwilling to take large bets.
However, this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. We expect the range to expand within the next few days.
If the bulls can propel the price above the 50-day SMA ($2.07) and $2.185 resistance zone, the XTZ/USD pair is likely to start a new uptrend that can reach $2.75 and above it $3.33.
Conversely, if the bears sink the pair below the 20-day EMA ($1.87), a drop to $1.65 and below it to $1.4453 is likely. The traders who are long can keep a stop loss of $1.40 to protect their positions.
Chainlink (LINK) continues to be one of the strongest major cryptocurrencies. It has been sustaining above the 50-day SMA for the past few days, which shows that the bulls are holding their fort.
The buyers are currently facing resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $3.5948. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not given up much ground, which shows strength.
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has been maintaining close to the overbought levels, which shows that bulls are in command. A break above $3.5948 can carry the LINK/USD pair to $4.8671.
Contrary to our assumption, if the pair turns down from the current levels and plummets below the 20-day EMA ($2.82), it will signal weakness. However, we give this a low probability of occurring.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.