Price Analysis 6/1: The tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated once again. This is bad news for the global economy which is currently witnessing one of the worst crises since the Great Recession.
If either the U.S. or China does not keep up their part of the trade deal, it could only make matters worse. Scrapping of the Phase I trade deal could ultimately result in a huge sell-off in global equity markets.
If uncertainty persists, investors might consider taking shelter in safe haven assets like gold and Bitcoin (BTC), the top-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap. History also favors a Bitcoin rally as the month of June has typically been a good month for the bulls. Between 2014 and 2019, the only year when June ended in the red was in 2018.
While most traders are keenly watching the $10,000 level on BTC and worrying about the next $1,000 move, Plan B, the creator of the stock-to-flow price prediction model, has projected a target of $100,000 for BTC by the end of 2021. This figure looks to be a far cry from the current levels but as history has shown, anything is possible in the crypto market.
To date, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate in an uptrend. It is currently stuck inside a symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The majority of the time, the breakout of the triangle happens in the direction of the prevailing trend but sometimes the breakout can result in a reversal. Hence, it is better to wait for the breakout to occur before initiating a trade.
The first sign of weakness would be a drop below the 20-day exponential moving average ($9,261). Below this level, a drop to the support line of the triangle is possible. This is an important level to watch out for because a breakdown of the triangle will signal the start of a possible downtrend with a target objective of $6,752.
Conversely, if the BTC/USD pair bounces off the 20-day EMA and breaks out of the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle, a rally to $10,500 and then to $11,828 is possible. The bears are likely to defend the resistance line of the large symmetrical triangle but if this level is crossed, a sustained new uptrend is likely.
Ether (ETH) completed the inverse head and shoulders pattern on May 28. After hesitation on May 29, the biggest altcoin soared on May 30 to an intraday high of $246.916. Although the bears are mounting stiff resistance close to $250, the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the breakout level of $227 which is a huge positive.
If the bulls can keep the 2nd-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap above $227.097, another attempt to resume the uptrend is likely. With both moving averages sloping up and the relative strength index above 60 levels, the advantage is with the bulls.
On a breakout above $246.916, the ETH/USD pair is likely to rally to $257 and then to the resistance line of the ascending channel close to $265. This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current levels and drops below $227.097. Below this level, a drop to the neckline is possible.
The bulls pushed XRP above the overhead resistance of $0.20570 on May 31 but they could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are defending this resistance aggressively.
However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not allowed the 3rd-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap to slip below the moving averages. The bulls are likely to make another attempt to carry the XRP/USD pair to the next level of $0.23612.
Conversely, if the bears sink the pair below the moving averages, a drop to $0.19130 and then to $0.17372 is possible. Therefore, traders who own long positions as suggested in the previous analysis can keep their stop-loss at $0.19. The stops can be trailed higher after the pair sustains above $0.20570.
A well-defined range offers a reliable trading opportunity at the critical support and resistance levels or on a breakout of the range. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is currently stuck inside the $217.55-$255.46 range. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which suggests a balance between the bulls and bears.
A break above $255.46 can carry the 5th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap to $280.47. This is likely to act as a stiff resistance because the BCH/USD pair has reversed direction from this level on three previous occasions.
Conversely, if the pair fails to break out of $255.46, the range-bound action is likely to continue for a few more days. A break below $217.55 can drag the price to $200, which is critical support.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) jumped above the downtrend line on May 30 but the bulls could not hold onto the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are unwilling to give up ground to the bulls.
On May 31, the 6th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap again dipped back below the downtrend line. If the price sustains below the moving averages, a drop to the next support at $180 and then $170 is possible.
The flat moving averages and the RSI at the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand.
If the price sustains above $200, the bulls are likely to make another attempt to rally towards $227. A break above this level is likely to be a huge positive, hence, it can offer a buying opportunity.
Litecoin (LTC) surged above the downtrend line on May 30. With this move, the bulls have increased the possibility of a rally to $50.7864. A breakout of $50.7864 will invalidate the developing bearish H&S pattern. Hence, this could offer a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, if the bulls fail to sustain the 7th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap above the downtrend line and the moving averages, the bears will try to sink the price to the critical support at $39.
A break below $39 will be a huge negative that could result in a drop to $32 and then to $28. However, if the LTC/USD pair rebounds off $39, the range-bound action is likely to continue for a few more days. The flat moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory point to a consolidation.
Binance Coin (BNB) reached the critical overhead resistance of $18.1377 on May 31 but the bears defended this level aggressively. However, a positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($16.71).
This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips. The 8th-ranked crypto-asset on CoinMarketCap is now stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA and $18.1377. This tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
If the bulls can propel the BNB/USD pair above $18.1377, the momentum is likely to pick up and open the doors for a rally to $21.50. This could offer a buying opportunity to the traders. On the other hand, if the 20-day EMA gives way, a drop to $15.7218 and then to $14.9586 is likely.
EOS is largely range-bound between $2.3314-$2.8319. If bulls can push the price above the range, a move to $3.1104 is possible. This is the level from where the altcoin had turned down on April 30. Therefore, the bears are likely to defend the $3.1104 level aggressively.
Still, if the bulls can drive the 9th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap above $3.1104, the momentum is likely to pick up. This could offer a buying opportunity to the traders. The first target to watch out on the upside is $3.8811.
If the EOS/USD pair again turns down from $2.8319, it will extend its stay inside the range for a few more days. The flat moving averages and the RSI just above the 50 levels also points to a possible consolidation for the next few days. The trend is likely to turn in favor of the bears on a break below the range.
Tezos (XTZ) has not been able to scale above $2.963 for three days in a row. This means that bears are aggressively defending this resistance. If they can sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($2.75), a drop to the 50-day simple moving average ($2.60) is possible.
However, if the bulls can sustain the 10th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap above the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break above the $2.963-$3.073 zone increases. Above this zone, the uptrend is likely to resume. The first target is $3.3367 and then $3.80 levels.
With both moving averages gradually sloping up and the RSI close to 60 levels, the bulls have a slight advantage. Therefore, traders can hold their long positions with stops at $2.57. A break above $2.963-$3.073 zone is likely to offer another buying opportunity to the traders.
Cardano (ADA) is in a strong uptrend. It resumed its up move on May 30 and surged above the overhead resistance of $0.0722722. This is a huge positive as it shows that the bulls continue to buy at higher levels.
If the bulls can keep the 11th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap above $0.0722722, the next level to watch on the upside is $0.1-$0.10652. This zone has been a major barrier for about twenty months. Hence, the bulls will find it difficult to break above it.
Alternatively, if the bears sink the ADA/USD pair back below $0.0722722, a drop to the 20-day EMA ($0.060) is likely. A bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment to buy the dips remains intact. However, a break below the 20-day EMA will indicate that the bulls are losing their grip.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.